Fresh overview of open interest in Forex

Eur/usd is getting higher because everybody is selling already for several weeks in a row (OANDA -68%, SAXO -77%, Dukascopy -57%, myfxbook community -75%). That's why we still expect eur/usd further appreciation.

The same situation is also with gbp/usd, but sellers don't overweight buyers too much. Nevertheless, we think that it'd be easier to profit from long positions.

We are still waiting for a major downside move of usd/jpy, as everybody is accumulating large long positions, except commercial players according to CFTC report (OANDA +67%, SAXO +65%, Dukascopy +80%, myfxbook community+63%).

Similar situation is with aud/usd - it is consolidating near local highs, but we think it will break the resistance, because there are too much short positions on the market.

According to open interest analysis, today's trading idea:


NZD/USD pattern

Please look closely - very similar patterns, indeed! Even amount of bars in local micro-trends is almost the same. Will history repeat itself? 



According to open positions at large Forex brokers and CFTC report we could draw a conclusion, that usd/jpy was going to fall like a stone, but we still cannot see that. Everybody is long usd/jpy, so we just wait when will the shark go hunting? 

Retail clients are also short with eur/usd  (OANDA -58%, Dukascopy -63%, SAXO -63%, myfxbook community -62%). So 1.3300 is ahead?


An intrigue with aud/usd

Today aud/usd has renewed it's lows, at the same time clients of large brokers keep accumulating long positions, as they always do trying to catch a small correction against the trend. CFTC report shows, that non-commercial players finally began to short AUD, large commercial players act like common retail clients - they are also accumulating long positions. Who is going to stay - retail FX clients or CFTC participants? We will watch it with a great interest) 



Forex open positions' review

It's a summer time but we still watch how do open positions change. Yesterday we saw a vast movement, when eur/usd gained more than 300 points just in 3 hours. According to last CFTC report, non-commercial players already began to sell eur/usd, while large players were accumulating long positions. Clients of large retail brokers were all buying eur/usd before that movement. It is very uncommon that eur/usd didn't go against small retail clients (but it still went against them on the futures market). The same situation was also with gbp/usd.

Usd/jpy uptrend was also very uncommon - CFTC reports and retail clients were holding long positions, only large commercial players were (and still are) betting on jpy further strength. OANDA report shows that clients are still holding 60% of total net-positions on the buy side.

There is a very interesting picture below: gbp/usd renewed it's recent low, triggered stop losses and sell stops (as it looks like that downtrend is going to continue). The next day it went 300 points up)

It confirms the rule: the only thing we can control on financial markets is our own risk.


Forex trading idea

Fresh CFTC and Forex brokers' open positions' reports indicate that right now we have a clear situation in term of open interest only with usd/jpy. Retail client continue to buy it, while commercial players are still accumulating short positions. Very strange that usd/jpy was actually gaining during past days. We still expect it to drop in upcoming few weeks, just because everybody is buying usd/jpy.

There is no consensus with other pairs - either we see a "sell" position on the futures' market and "buy" position in large brokers' open interest reports or visa verse. So here we need to just wait until strong net position is accumulated, only then we can building up trading ideas in an opposite direction.

Today we have a small trading idea based on pattern rather on an open interest. History may repeat itself, but anyway it will be an interesting experience.